CEPS Commentaries


1 - 30 of 320
14 June 2013

In her examination of the capital controls that have been in place in Cyprus since March 27th, Leonor Coutinho asks how soon can they be lifted and whether the recapitalisation plans will be sufficiently convincing to allow the Cypriot banking sector to regain the trust of the public.

The author is Senior Researcher at Europrism Research in Cyprus and a Special Scientist at the University of Cyprus.

14 June 2013

When examining youth unemployment in the broader context of its contribution to total unemployment in Europe, Daniel Gros finds in this new Commentary that the problem reveals a completely different picture from the one usually presented.  Extreme figures on youth unemployment in the periphery hide the fact that the number of actually unemployed is rather small given that most youth in countries like Spain or Greece are not even looking for a job.

Daniel Gros is Director of CEPS.

10 June 2013

After the presidential elections on June 14th, the Iranian regime will continue its catch-me-if-you-can game with the international community until it has reached the nuclear threshold. Paradoxically, the key to a solution on the nuclear issue might just lie in discussions on a WMD-free Middle East, but only after Iran has obtained nuclear military capability.

03 June 2013

Recent opinion polls suggest that most Icelanders are against joining the EU. By the same token, however, a majority of those polled are in favour of continuing accession talks.  These results show that Iceland’s relationship with the EU is a deeply divisive issue within the country. Although no date for the referendum has been set, the new centre-right coalition may thus want to settle this matter as soon as possible.

27 May 2013

A staggering one out of every four young people is presently unemployed in Spain. And comparable numbers in Greece, Portugal and Italy are hardly more encouraging. Germany, on the other hand, enjoys a historically low youth unemployment rate of 8% and is experiencing skill shortages in some occupations. Against this background, this Commentary calls upon the European Commission to use its considerable strength and know-how in bringing partners and stakeholders together in order to facilitate the necessary infrastructure to allow better matching across borders of workers and employers.

15 May 2013

Ten years have passed since the EU-Western Balkans summit was held in Thessaloniki in June 2003. In this new CEPS Commentary, CEPS Associate Senior Fellow Erwan Fouéré exhorts the EU to mark the occasion by reaffirming with greater determination the European perspective for the countries of the region in the hope of keeping the Balkan ghosts at bay.

Erwan Fouéré is Associate Senior Research Fellow at CEPS.

08 May 2013

In surveying the heated debate in the eurozone about austerity and the cost of high public debt, this CEPS Commentary suggests that the influential paper by Carmen Reinhard and Kenneth Rogoff misses the key point that public debt owed to foreigners is different from debt owed to residents.

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

08 May 2013

Against the background of the Boston Marathon bombing as a violent reminder of the lawlessness throughout much of the Northern Caucasus, Michael Emerson calls in this commentary for a fresh direction in the EU’s negotiations with Russia over visa-free travel.

03 May 2013

Rather than expending unnecessary negative energy on the blunt and indiscriminate financial transaction tax (FTT), this commentary argues that the EU should give priority to its tax base harmonisation project. Progress on this front would advance several objectives at once: it would make an important step towards more economic union, it would promote the EU as a business location and it would succeed in appropriating tax income to the location where corporate activities are effectively exercised.

Karel Lannoo is Chief Executive Officer and Senior Research Fellow at CEPS.

29 April 2013

As a result of EEAS-led facilitated dialogue, on April 19th the prime ministers of Serbia and Kosovo reached their first agreement on the principles governing the normalisation of relations. The agreement handed Catherine Ashton a diplomatic victory she badly needed and offered proof of the added value of the European External Action Service (EEAS) as a new EU foreign policy actor.

Steven Blockmans is a CEPS Senior Research Fellow and Head of the EU Foreign Policy unit.

12 April 2013

Faced with limited options for coming up with the funds needed to pay off the next instalment on its bailout loan, Portugal is advised in this Commentary by economist Leonor Coutinho to trim the number of public sector employees, in combination with an increase in public sector working hours, among the lowest in Europe. In her view, these measures will have the best long-term implications both in terms of fiscal sustainability and of labour productivity, and may finally allow the country to resume the catching-up process that has been stalled since the start of EMU.

08 April 2013

While acknowledging that Cyprus is too small to matter for global financial markets, this Commentary finds that its case could turn out to become a very important precedent for the way European policy-makers deal with future banking problems and the plans for a ‘banking union’.

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies. This Commentary was first published by Project Syndicate on 5 April 2013, and disseminated to newspapers and journals worldwide.

05 April 2013

This Commentary argues that the failure to recognise shared responsibility for the banking crisis in Cyprus has led to the imposition of a bail-in template that increases the risk of banking crises and economic depression in the eurozone.

Paul De Grauwe is John Paulson Professor in European Political Economy at the London School of Economics and Senior Associate Research Fellow at CEPS.

28 March 2013

After a week in which Cypriot politicians reassured people that their deposits were safe, followed by the announcement of a bank levy on savings, then a rush to withdraw cash amid general confusion and anxiety, Cypriot Senior Researcher Leonor Coutinho argues that in the case of a banking crisis it is vital for policy-makers to treat communication as an important component of the policy toolkit.

Leonor Coutinho is Senior Researcher at Europrism Research (Cyprus) and a Special Scientist at the University of Cyprus.

27 March 2013

This CEPS Commentary notes that this is a critical time for the EU’s enlargement agenda with competing interests at play – between those who suggest that further enlargement is a heavy burden that the EU can ill afford in the current economic climate, and others who continue to believe that extending the frontiers of peace and security to include the Balkan countries will make the EU a safer place.

21 March 2013

In this CEPS Commentary, the former Irish Prime Minister calls the precedents being set in the Cypriot banking case “troubling” and reflective of a lack of clarity and consistency of thought by both the eurozone Finance Ministers and the European Commission. He welcomes the rejection of the deal by the Cypriot Parliament as it now gives eurozone policy-makers a chance to think again about the underlying philosophy of their approach to the financial crisis.

08 March 2013

The European Parliament has probably won a Pyrrhic victory with its position on bank bonuses, argues CEPS CEO Karel Lannoo in this new Commentary. In return, EU member states got what they wanted with the new Capital Requirements Directive (CRD IV): no binding leverage ratio; mortgage risk weightings and capital add-ons to be determined by member states; and no obligatory consolidated capital position for bank-insurance companies. In other words, Banking Union will start out with capital rules that are more like Emmental cheese than a single rulebook.

07 March 2013

Twenty years after the split of Czechoslovakia, expert analysts from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the UK shed light on the political geography of this part of Central Europe in an extended three-part Commentary. The end points in the Euro-Atlantic integration processes of the successor states may be similar, argue the authors, but the journeys have been very different. Recent experience would suggest that in terms of EU politics, the Slovaks will be rather passive whilst the Czechs might be a little more troublesome.

06 March 2013

Ten years ago, Germany’s economy was mired in recession while the rest of Europe was recovering. Its unemployment rate was higher than the euro area average; it was violating European rules on excessive deficits and its financial system was in crisis. Today, however, Germany is held up as a model for other countries to follow.

04 March 2013

The assassination of the opposition leader in Tunisia exposed the underlying divisions between members of the ruling classes, between those in and outside of government, between religious groupings and secularists, and between the coastal areas and the hinterland of Tunisia. Since the revolution, tackling social inclusion has become a pressing problem: men versus women, young versus old, opponents versus supporters of the old regime and political forces inside Tunisia versus those in exile.

15 February 2013

Against the current background of a sharp decline in public support for the EU and an emerging reinforced centre to manage the euro crisis, this commentary finds that the only way Europe’s leaders can hope to keep the fragile equilibrium afloat is to summon up the courage to go forward with concrete proposals for political union.

Karel Lannoo is Chief Executive Officer and Senior Research Fellow at CEPS.

06 February 2013

The experiences of small countries like Greece, the Baltic states and Iceland are often adduced as evidence to justify arguments both for or against austerity. In this Commentary, CEPS Director Daniel Gros observes, however, that the proponents in these disputes usually neglect to mention the key idiosyncratic characteristics and specific starting conditions that can make such direct comparisons meaningless. He points out that Latvia has recovered quickly whereas Greece is still in recession.

05 February 2013

In this Commentary, Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji provide evidence to suggest that movements in the spreads in the eurozone – i.e. the difference between national government bond rates and the German rate – between 2010 and the middle of 2012, when the ECB announced its OMT (outright monetary transactions) programme, were driven by market sentiment. Later as the fear and panic subsided, thanks largely to the announcement of the ECB, these spreads declined spectacularly.

01 February 2013

Finding that the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) currently lacks a strategic vision that would offer states in the southern Mediterranean substantial returns in exchange for making tough reforms, this CEPS Commentary suggests that this weakness can be overcome through a concrete prospect of regional integration pro-actively driven forward by the European Union. Taking inspiration from current projects such as the Energy Community Treaty, the authors urge the EU to explicitly incorporate “legally binding sectoral multilateralism” into the ENP.

24 January 2013

Despite several daunting obstacles, the low expectations and the high level of apprehension that accompanied the start of the Cyprus Presidency, Thomas Linders and Steven Blockmans find in a new CEPS Commentary that the small, remote and politically divided island nevertheless succeeded in scoring a number of positive results, thanks in part to the country’s pragmatic approach to the job and the perpetual motion of the EU legislature. As a corrective instrument to big state politics in the EU, however, the role of the Presidency remains limited.

22 January 2013

On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty between Germany and France, CEPS Director Daniel Gros acknowledges the fundamental contribution made by the Franco-German motor but also takes the two countries to task for their refusal abandon the pretence that they still perform individually an independent role at the global level.  France and Germany should allow European institutions to formulate and implement common external policies.

 

16 January 2013

As David Cameron prepares to deliver his momentous “Europe” speech, Adam Łazowski warns the British Prime Minister that a divorce from the EU will not be easy and that the decision should be based on a very thorough political, economic and legal analysis, as the consequences in all possible respects will be profound.

Adam Łazowski is Reader in Law at the School of Law, University of Westminster.

15 January 2013

As the date approaches for Prime Minister Cameron’s long-awaited speech setting out his policy intentions towards the EU, a new CEPS Commentary by Michael Emerson chronicles a plethora of problems his propositions are going to encounter for their successful implementation in the both the British and European interests.

Michael Emerson is Associate Senior Fellow at CEPS.

07 January 2013

Taking exception with the often-heard bromide that Europe needs more integration to save its social model, Daniel Gros reiterates his position in this new CEPS Commentary that faster economic and population growth are key to ensuring the future of Europe’s social security systems. Daniel Gros is Director of CEPS.